Week 0 · FBS & FCS

College Football 2026

Every game on the slate, one row each. Highlighted rows are the ones where the systems' average clears your threshold against the market.

KyModel is fully experimental — a separate, unproven project shown for reference only. Don't use it to make bets.

Market lines as of Tue 8/25 5:32:34PM ET
Sources this week 5/6 current
Sagarin 48/48 FBS+FCS games · auto-updated
TR 48/48 FBS+FCS games · auto-updated
SP+ 48/48 FBS+FCS games · auto-updated
!
Big200 0/8 FBS games · source hasn't updated yet
Keeper 38/40 FCS games · uploaded
KyModel 6/8 FBS totals games · uploaded
System accuracy (season to date) placeholder — fills in once games are graded via scorecard.py
FBS SpreadsFBS TotalsFCS SpreadsFCS Totals
RecordMSEBiasRecordMSEBiasRecordMSEBiasRecordMSEBias
SagarinTBDTBDTBDTBDTBDTBD
Big200TBDTBDTBD
TRTBDTBDTBDTBDTBDTBDTBDTBDTBDTBDTBDTBD
SP+TBDTBDTBDTBDTBDTBDTBDTBDTBDTBDTBDTBD
KyModelTBDTBDTBD
KeeperTBDTBDTBDTBDTBDTBD
meets threshold — play
inside threshold — no play
no systems voted — no data
FCS Odds = favorite named, both sides' real Kalshi odds
FBS Moneyline = CFBD's real odds to win outright (not a spread/total price)
Totals only: green = system projects over market, red = under
dashed header = reference only, not in Avg
FBS · Spreads 59.1% ATS, 2025 plays when |diff| > 3.49
Kickoff Game SagarinBig200TRSP+ Avg Market Moneyline Diff Play
Sat 8/29 9:30PM ET Jacksonville St @ North Dakota St +10.37+20.34+8.50 +13.07 +7.00 North Dakota St −265 / Jacksonville St +215 +6.07 North Dakota St −7.0
Sat 8/29 10:30PM ET Sacramento St @ Eastern Michigan +8.28−0.54+9.80 +5.85 +10.00 Eastern Michigan −380 / Sacramento St +300 −4.15 Sacramento St +10.0
Sun 8/30 2:00AM ET Memphis @ UNLV +3.33−1.40+5.80 +2.58 +4.50 UNLV −198 / Memphis +164 −1.92 no play
Sat 8/29 11:00PM ET New Mexico St @ Florida St +31.74+31.88+30.10 +31.24 +30.50 Florida St −8000 / New Mexico St +2200 +0.74 no play
Sat 8/29 11:00PM ET Hawai`i @ Stanford +8.63+2.59+2.80 +4.67 +4.00 Stanford −185 / Hawai`i +154 +0.67 no play
Sat 8/29 4:00PM ET TCU @ North Carolina −3.79−17.28−3.40 −8.16 −7.50 North Carolina +250 / TCU −310 −0.66 no play
Sat 8/29 7:00PM ET San Jose St @ Southern Cal +43.70+37.45+35.90 +39.02 +38.50 Southern Cal −100000 / San Jose St +5000 +0.52 no play
Sat 8/29 7:30PM ET North Carolina St @ Virginia +4.55+5.79+4.90 +5.08 +5.50 Virginia −218 / North Carolina St +180 −0.42 no play
Coverage note: Big200 hasn't rolled its 2026 rankings yet (0 teams returned this run), so every FBS spread row above is Sagarin + TR + SP+ (3/4), not the full 4. Nothing to fix on this end — it'll fill in once Big200 updates.
FBS · Totals plays when |diff| ≥ 6.0
Kickoff Game TRSP+ KyModel Avg Market Moneyline Diff Play
Sat 8/29 11:00PM ET New Mexico St @ Florida St 64.2053.50 50.50 58.85 52.50 Florida St −8000 / New Mexico St +2200 +6.35 Over 52.5
Sat 8/29 9:30PM ET Jacksonville St @ North Dakota St 57.5047.50 52.50 46.50 North Dakota St −265 / Jacksonville St +215 +6.00 Over 46.5
Sat 8/29 7:30PM ET North Carolina St @ Virginia 64.4053.50 55.70 58.95 53.50 Virginia −218 / North Carolina St +180 +5.45 no play
Sat 8/29 7:00PM ET San Jose St @ Southern Cal 70.0060.50 58.30 65.25 60.50 Southern Cal −100000 / San Jose St +5000 +4.75 no play
Sat 8/29 11:00PM ET Hawai`i @ Stanford 56.1049.50 50.30 52.80 48.50 Stanford −185 / Hawai`i +154 +4.30 no play
Sun 8/30 2:00AM ET Memphis @ UNLV 59.9057.50 62.40 58.70 56.50 UNLV −198 / Memphis +164 +2.20 no play
Sat 8/29 10:30PM ET Sacramento St @ Eastern Michigan 55.7052.50 54.10 52.50 Eastern Michigan −380 / Sacramento St +300 +1.60 no play
Sat 8/29 4:00PM ET TCU @ North Carolina 45.2047.50 53.10 46.35 47.50 North Carolina +250 / TCU −310 −1.15 no play
KyModel (dashed underline = reference only): A separate structural pace × efficiency totals model (CollegeFootballData-based, own Off EPA/Def EPA/pace ratings, HFA baked into the margin not the total) — shown alongside TR/SP+ for comparison but deliberately excluded from Avg, since it lives in its own project (CFB-Board/cfb_totals.py) and was never wired into this pipeline's vote system. FBS-only: its ratings come from CFBD's advanced-stats endpoint, which doesn't cover FCS, so an FBS-vs-FCS crossover game (Jacksonville St @ North Dakota St, Sacramento St @ Eastern Michigan) shows —.
FCS · Spreads plays when |diff| ≥ 6.0
Kickoff Game KeeperSagarinSP+TR Avg Market Odds Diff Play
Thu 8/27 11:00PM ET Charleston Southern @ Lindenwood +4.89+3.99+6.00+5.26 +5.04 +21.50 Lindenwood −144 / −186 −16.46 Charleston Southern +21.5
Sat 8/29 7:30PM ET Lehigh @ Holy Cross −30.88+1.40−12.90−14.34 −14.18 −24.50 Lehigh −156 / −163 +10.32 Holy Cross +24.5
Fri 8/28 10:00PM ET Marist @ New Haven +5.70+11.85+2.10−2.46 +4.30 −3.50 Marist −257 / −355 +7.80 New Haven +3.5
Sat 8/29 11:00PM ET North Carolina Centr @ Texas Southern −5.80−7.19−11.30−3.54 −6.96 −13.50 North Carolina Central −300 / −355 +6.54 Texas Southern +13.5
Sat 8/29 7:00PM ET UC-Davis @ Portland St −29.87−12.91−24.40−22.33 −22.38 −28.50 UC Davis −335 / −376 +6.12 Portland St +28.5
Sat 8/29 9:30PM ET Campbell @ East Tennessee St +16.27+9.82+19.20+15.80 +15.27 +9.50 East Tennessee St. −317 / −400 +5.77 no play
Thu 8/27 10:00PM ET Stony Brook @ Delaware St +1.61−5.56−0.10−3.11 −1.79 −7.50 Stony Brook −285 / −300 +5.71 no play
Sat 8/29 10:00PM ET Bucknell @ Richmond +12.38+13.94+21.30+13.11 +15.18 +9.50 Richmond −400 / −317 +5.68 no play
Thu 8/27 10:00PM ET Mercyhurst @ Youngstown St +25.65+21.83+27.90+25.79 +25.29 +30.50 Youngstown St. −257 / −355 −5.21 no play
Sat 8/29 11:00PM ET Eastern Kentucky @ Western Carolina −3.53+2.65+4.30+2.35 +1.44 +6.50 Western Carolina −300 / −300 −5.06 no play
Sat 8/29 10:00PM ET Morgan St @ North Carolina A&T −1.75−2.18−5.30−8.76 −4.50 −9.50 Morgan St. −335 / −400 +5.00 no play
Thu 8/27 11:00PM ET Chattanooga @ West Georgia +12.92+1.22+7.50+15.97 +9.40 +4.50 West Georgia −300 / −400 +4.90 no play
Thu 8/27 11:00PM ET Mississippi Valley S @ Nicholls St +24.44+19.09+20.40+27.01 +22.73 +27.50 Nicholls St. −488 / −257 −4.77 no play
Sat 8/29 1:00AM ET Weber St @ Northern Colorado +0.95−6.89−3.80+0.90 −2.21 +2.50 Northern Colorado −355 / −257 −4.71 no play
Thu 8/27 11:00PM ET Lafayette @ Georgetown DC −14.70−7.50−14.10−12.09 −12.10 −7.50 Lafayette −186 / −194 −4.60 no play
Sat 8/29 10:00PM ET Bryant @ Stonehill +5.20−3.05−0.70−1.06 +0.10 −4.50 Bryant −104 / −100 +4.60 no play
Sun 8/30 12:30AM ET Jackson St @ Tennessee St −21.69−7.24−19.00−16.18 −16.03 −20.50 Jackson St. −335 / −400 +4.47 no play
Sun 8/30 2:00AM ET Montana St @ Utah Tech −47.99−26.06−31.90−31.39 −34.34 −30.50 Montana St. −335 / −317 −3.84 no play
Fri 8/28 12:00AM ET LIU @ North Dakota +26.08+26.49+22.30+33.16 +27.01 +30.50 North Dakota −170 / −163 −3.49 no play
Fri 8/28 10:00PM ET William & Mary @ Villanova +20.65+10.07+13.10+15.06 +14.72 +11.50 Villanova −270 / −186 +3.22 no play
Thu 8/27 11:30PM ET Central Arkansas @ Tennessee-Martin +6.97+3.92+8.60+1.68 +5.29 +2.50 Tennessee-Martin −285 / −400 +2.79 no play
Sat 8/29 9:00PM ET Eastern Washington @ Northern Arizona +4.50+5.09+9.80+9.77 +7.29 +4.50 Northern Arizona −285 / −285 +2.79 no play
Sun 8/30 1:00AM ET Prairie View A&M @ Tarleton St +15.76+20.33+13.50+25.63 +18.80 +21.50 Tarleton St. −100 / −104 −2.70 no play
Sat 8/29 11:30PM ET Howard @ Alabama A&M +0.00+0.00−2.78 −0.93 −3.50 Howard −317 / −400 +2.57 no play
Sat 8/29 4:00PM ET Robert Morris @ Wagner +13.03−0.42+5.70+4.63 +5.74 +3.50 Wagner −376 / −270 +2.24 no play
Sat 8/29 11:00PM ET Samford @ North Alabama +3.11+9.70+9.82 +7.54 +9.50 North Alabama −335 / −400 −1.96 no play
Sat 8/29 2:00AM ET Idaho @ Cal Poly SLO +5.68−8.80−6.40+2.70 −1.71 −3.50 Idaho −317 / −376 +1.79 no play
Sat 8/29 11:00PM ET Stetson @ South Dakota St +55.84+48.14+45.10+51.79 +50.22 +48.50 South Dakota St. −300 / −456 +1.72 no play
Fri 8/28 10:00PM ET Colgate @ Fordham −15.25+0.28−6.30−9.97 −7.81 −9.50 Colgate −426 / −317 +1.69 no play
Fri 8/28 10:00PM ET Rhode Island @ Merrimack −31.72−8.54−24.70−14.53 −19.87 −21.50 Rhode Island −335 / −400 +1.63 no play
Sat 8/29 10:00PM ET The Citadel @ Wofford +10.30+6.30+7.80+9.79 +8.55 +7.50 Wofford −335 / −400 +1.05 no play
Sat 8/29 11:00PM ET Abilene Christian @ Lamar −2.64−7.94−2.00−5.49 −4.52 −5.50 Abilene Christian −426 / −317 +0.98 no play
Thu 8/27 11:00PM ET Houston Christian @ SE Louisiana +32.08+18.73+33.10+29.17 +28.27 +27.50 Southeastern Louisiana −245 / −376 +0.77 no play
Thu 8/27 10:00PM ET Maine @ Towson +1.02+6.14+4.30+4.89 +4.09 +3.50 Towson −113 / −108 +0.59 no play
Thu 8/27 11:00PM ET Eastern Illinois @ Murray St +10.06+1.43+0.50+3.70 +3.92 +4.50 Murray St. −257 / −355 −0.58 no play
Sat 8/29 10:00PM ET VMI @ Idaho St +43.35+18.99+34.70+39.17 +34.05 +33.50 Idaho St. −400 / −317 +0.55 no play
Thu 8/27 11:00PM ET Gardner-Webb @ Austin Peay +13.14+10.67+16.50+15.64 +13.99 +13.50 Austin Peay −335 / −257 +0.49 no play
Sun 8/30 1:00AM ET Southern Utah @ Montana +23.34+12.49+16.90+11.78 +16.13 +16.50 Montana −156 / −170 −0.37 no play
Sat 8/29 11:00PM ET East Texas A&M @ Mercer +20.78+19.16+27.30+17.64 +21.22 +21.50 Mercer −614 / −270 −0.28 no play
Sat 8/29 11:00PM ET Stephen F. Austin @ McNeese St −13.64−10.27−16.10−17.46 −14.37 −14.50 Stephen F. Austin −335 / −400 +0.13 no play
Coverage note: TR joined FCS as a 4th vote (2026-08-27, per your call) alongside Keeper + Sagarin + SP+, and 38 of 40 FCS games above are the full 4/4. The 2 still at 3/4 — Samford @ North Alabama, Howard @ Alabama A&M — are genuinely missing Keeper: neither side was marked with the @ home indicator in that week's real Keeper data, so Keeper skipped them rather than guess. Not a bug here, a gap in the source.
FCS · Totals 68.2% O/U, 2025 — best bucket plays when |diff| ≥ 6.0
Kickoff Game KeeperSP+TR Avg Market Odds Diff Play
Sat 8/29 11:00PM ET Eastern Kentucky @ Western Carolina 63.0059.5074.30 65.60 49.50 Over −108 / Under −113 +16.10 Over 49.5
Fri 8/28 12:00AM ET LIU @ North Dakota 42.9041.8037.90 40.87 51.50 Over −150 / Under −144 −10.63 Under 51.5
Sun 8/30 1:00AM ET Southern Utah @ Montana 65.9065.2075.20 68.77 58.50 Over −178 / Under −186 +10.27 Over 58.5
Sat 8/29 10:00PM ET Morgan St @ North Carolina A&T 56.6053.6063.90 58.03 49.50 Over −245 / Under −223 +8.53 Over 49.5
Thu 8/27 11:00PM ET Gardner-Webb @ Austin Peay 61.2057.0077.60 65.27 57.50 Over −100 / Under −113 +7.77 Over 57.5
Fri 8/28 10:00PM ET Rhode Island @ Merrimack 47.4048.3041.80 45.83 53.50 Over −104 / Under −117 −7.67 Under 53.5
Sun 8/30 2:00AM ET Montana St @ Utah Tech 51.5052.6045.10 49.73 56.50 Over −122 / Under −108 −6.77 Under 56.5
Sat 8/29 9:00PM ET Eastern Washington @ Northern Arizona 61.6060.4063.90 61.97 55.50 Over −108 / Under −113 +6.47 Over 55.5
Fri 8/28 10:00PM ET Colgate @ Fordham 54.5051.1064.80 56.80 50.50 Over −108 / Under −117 +6.30 Over 50.5
Thu 8/27 10:00PM ET Stony Brook @ Delaware St 54.8055.7061.60 57.37 51.50 Over −100 / Under −122 +5.87 no play
Thu 8/27 11:00PM ET Houston Christian @ SE Louisiana 46.6043.1044.40 44.70 50.50 Over −113 / Under −100 −5.80 no play
Sat 8/29 4:00PM ET Robert Morris @ Wagner 38.6031.1032.00 33.90 39.50 Over −108 / Under −113 −5.60 no play
Fri 8/28 10:00PM ET Marist @ New Haven 46.9048.6054.50 50.00 44.50 Over −108 / Under −117 +5.50 no play
Sat 8/29 11:00PM ET North Carolina Centr @ Texas Southern 54.3052.3064.40 57.00 51.50 Over −108 / Under −117 +5.50 no play
Sat 8/29 7:30PM ET Lehigh @ Holy Cross 47.3046.7032.40 42.13 47.50 Over −108 / Under −122 −5.37 no play
Sun 8/30 12:30AM ET Jackson St @ Tennessee St 44.4043.7047.50 45.20 50.50 Over −426 / Under −456 −5.30 no play
Thu 8/27 10:00PM ET Maine @ Towson 50.9050.3044.30 48.50 43.50 Over −113 / Under −108 +5.00 no play
Sat 8/29 10:00PM ET The Citadel @ Wofford 45.4045.2027.90 39.50 44.50 Over −113 / Under −113 −5.00 no play
Sat 8/29 9:30PM ET Campbell @ East Tennessee St 60.3060.7059.10 60.03 55.50 Over −245 / Under −223 +4.53 no play
Thu 8/27 10:00PM ET Mercyhurst @ Youngstown St 55.6053.3064.00 57.63 53.50 Over −104 / Under −108 +4.13 no play
Thu 8/27 11:00PM ET Mississippi Valley S @ Nicholls St 50.4048.8051.30 50.17 53.50 Over −186 / Under −245 −3.33 no play
Sat 8/29 10:00PM ET VMI @ Idaho St 58.2057.2056.70 57.37 60.50 Over −233 / Under −203 −3.13 no play
Sat 8/29 11:00PM ET East Texas A&M @ Mercer 61.9060.8067.70 63.47 60.50 Over −104 / Under −113 +2.97 no play
Sun 8/30 1:00AM ET Prairie View A&M @ Tarleton St 57.2053.5060.60 57.10 54.50 Over −108 / Under −117 +2.60 no play
Sat 8/29 11:00PM ET Stetson @ South Dakota St 52.9053.8055.40 54.03 56.50 Over −223 / Under −223 −2.47 no play
Sat 8/29 1:00AM ET Weber St @ Northern Colorado 52.8055.7043.30 50.60 48.50 Over −108 / Under −108 +2.10 no play
Thu 8/27 11:30PM ET Central Arkansas @ Tennessee-Martin 50.5051.0053.30 51.60 53.50 Over −213 / Under −223 −1.90 no play
Thu 8/27 11:00PM ET Lafayette @ Georgetown DC 48.4054.7056.50 53.20 51.50 Over −108 / Under −117 +1.70 no play
Sat 8/29 7:00PM ET UC-Davis @ Portland St 68.2062.8059.90 63.63 62.50 Over −233 / Under −233 +1.13 no play
Sat 8/29 11:00PM ET Abilene Christian @ Lamar 51.1049.4044.70 48.40 49.50 Over −108 / Under −108 −1.10 no play
Sat 8/29 2:00AM ET Idaho @ Cal Poly SLO 57.5058.1054.00 56.53 55.50 Over −127 / Under −122 +1.03 no play
Sat 8/29 11:00PM ET Stephen F. Austin @ McNeese St 49.8048.5047.90 48.73 49.50 Over −233 / Under −233 −0.77 no play
Fri 8/28 10:00PM ET William & Mary @ Villanova 46.9052.0051.80 50.23 49.50 Over −108 / Under −113 +0.73 no play
Thu 8/27 11:00PM ET Charleston Southern @ Lindenwood 44.0045.6044.80 44.80 45.50 Over −117 / Under −117 −0.70 no play
Sat 8/29 11:30PM ET Howard @ Alabama A&M 48.7040.90 44.80 45.50 Over −108 / Under −113 −0.70 no play
Sat 8/29 10:00PM ET Bucknell @ Richmond 47.3051.9054.20 51.13 50.50 Over −233 / Under −233 +0.63 no play
Thu 8/27 11:00PM ET Eastern Illinois @ Murray St 52.1050.4053.60 52.03 51.50 Over −108 / Under −113 +0.53 no play
Sat 8/29 10:00PM ET Bryant @ Stonehill 47.8041.7042.50 44.00 43.50 Over −113 / Under −117 +0.50 no play
Thu 8/27 11:00PM ET Chattanooga @ West Georgia 51.7053.7050.10 51.83 51.50 Over −104 / Under −122 +0.33 no play
Sat 8/29 11:00PM ET Samford @ North Alabama 58.1055.10 56.60 56.50 Over −108 / Under −117 +0.10 no play
Your best bucket is fully wired now: Sagarin never publishes a total (spread-only source), but Keeper + SP+ + TR together cover 38 of 40 games above at the full 3/3. The same 2 games missing Keeper (Samford @ North Alabama, Howard @ Alabama A&M) are also missing here, for the same reason — no @ home marker in that week's real Keeper data.