Every game on the slate, one row each. Highlighted rows are the ones where the systems' average clears your threshold against the market.
⚠ KyModel is fully experimental — a separate, unproven project shown for reference only. Don't use it to make bets.
| FBS Spreads | FBS Totals | FCS Spreads | FCS Totals | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record | MSE | Bias | Record | MSE | Bias | Record | MSE | Bias | Record | MSE | Bias | |
| Sagarin | TBD | TBD | TBD | — | TBD | TBD | TBD | — | ||||
| Big200 | TBD | TBD | TBD | — | — | — | ||||||
| TR | TBD | TBD | TBD | TBD | TBD | TBD | TBD | TBD | TBD | TBD | TBD | TBD |
| SP+ | TBD | TBD | TBD | TBD | TBD | TBD | TBD | TBD | TBD | TBD | TBD | TBD |
| KyModel | — | TBD | TBD | TBD | — | — | ||||||
| Keeper | — | — | TBD | TBD | TBD | TBD | TBD | TBD | ||||
| Kickoff | Game | Sagarin | Big200 | TR | SP+ | Avg | Market | Moneyline | Diff | Play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/29 9:30PM ET | Jacksonville St @ North Dakota St | +10.37 | — | +20.34 | +8.50 | +13.07 | +7.00 | North Dakota St −265 / Jacksonville St +215 | +6.07 | North Dakota St −7.0 |
| Sat 8/29 10:30PM ET | Sacramento St @ Eastern Michigan | +8.28 | — | −0.54 | +9.80 | +5.85 | +10.00 | Eastern Michigan −380 / Sacramento St +300 | −4.15 | Sacramento St +10.0 |
| Sun 8/30 2:00AM ET | Memphis @ UNLV | +3.33 | — | −1.40 | +5.80 | +2.58 | +4.50 | UNLV −198 / Memphis +164 | −1.92 | no play |
| Sat 8/29 11:00PM ET | New Mexico St @ Florida St | +31.74 | — | +31.88 | +30.10 | +31.24 | +30.50 | Florida St −8000 / New Mexico St +2200 | +0.74 | no play |
| Sat 8/29 11:00PM ET | Hawai`i @ Stanford | +8.63 | — | +2.59 | +2.80 | +4.67 | +4.00 | Stanford −185 / Hawai`i +154 | +0.67 | no play |
| Sat 8/29 4:00PM ET | TCU @ North Carolina | −3.79 | — | −17.28 | −3.40 | −8.16 | −7.50 | North Carolina +250 / TCU −310 | −0.66 | no play |
| Sat 8/29 7:00PM ET | San Jose St @ Southern Cal | +43.70 | — | +37.45 | +35.90 | +39.02 | +38.50 | Southern Cal −100000 / San Jose St +5000 | +0.52 | no play |
| Sat 8/29 7:30PM ET | North Carolina St @ Virginia | +4.55 | — | +5.79 | +4.90 | +5.08 | +5.50 | Virginia −218 / North Carolina St +180 | −0.42 | no play |
| Coverage note: Big200 hasn't rolled its 2026 rankings yet (0 teams returned this run), so every FBS spread row above is Sagarin + TR + SP+ (3/4), not the full 4. Nothing to fix on this end — it'll fill in once Big200 updates. |
| Kickoff | Game | TR | SP+ | KyModel | Avg | Market | Moneyline | Diff | Play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/29 11:00PM ET | New Mexico St @ Florida St | 64.20 | 53.50 | 50.50 | 58.85 | 52.50 | Florida St −8000 / New Mexico St +2200 | +6.35 | Over 52.5 |
| Sat 8/29 9:30PM ET | Jacksonville St @ North Dakota St | 57.50 | 47.50 | — | 52.50 | 46.50 | North Dakota St −265 / Jacksonville St +215 | +6.00 | Over 46.5 |
| Sat 8/29 7:30PM ET | North Carolina St @ Virginia | 64.40 | 53.50 | 55.70 | 58.95 | 53.50 | Virginia −218 / North Carolina St +180 | +5.45 | no play |
| Sat 8/29 7:00PM ET | San Jose St @ Southern Cal | 70.00 | 60.50 | 58.30 | 65.25 | 60.50 | Southern Cal −100000 / San Jose St +5000 | +4.75 | no play |
| Sat 8/29 11:00PM ET | Hawai`i @ Stanford | 56.10 | 49.50 | 50.30 | 52.80 | 48.50 | Stanford −185 / Hawai`i +154 | +4.30 | no play |
| Sun 8/30 2:00AM ET | Memphis @ UNLV | 59.90 | 57.50 | 62.40 | 58.70 | 56.50 | UNLV −198 / Memphis +164 | +2.20 | no play |
| Sat 8/29 10:30PM ET | Sacramento St @ Eastern Michigan | 55.70 | 52.50 | — | 54.10 | 52.50 | Eastern Michigan −380 / Sacramento St +300 | +1.60 | no play |
| Sat 8/29 4:00PM ET | TCU @ North Carolina | 45.20 | 47.50 | 53.10 | 46.35 | 47.50 | North Carolina +250 / TCU −310 | −1.15 | no play |
KyModel (dashed underline = reference only):
A separate structural pace × efficiency totals model (CollegeFootballData-based, own Off EPA/Def EPA/pace ratings, HFA baked into the margin not the total) — shown alongside TR/SP+ for comparison but deliberately excluded from Avg, since it lives in its own project (CFB-Board/cfb_totals.py) and was never wired into this pipeline's vote system. FBS-only: its ratings come from CFBD's advanced-stats endpoint, which doesn't cover FCS, so an FBS-vs-FCS crossover game (Jacksonville St @ North Dakota St, Sacramento St @ Eastern Michigan) shows —.
|
| Kickoff | Game | Keeper | Sagarin | SP+ | TR | Avg | Market | Odds | Diff | Play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/27 11:00PM ET | Charleston Southern @ Lindenwood | +4.89 | +3.99 | +6.00 | +5.26 | +5.04 | +21.50 | Lindenwood −144 / −186 | −16.46 | Charleston Southern +21.5 |
| Sat 8/29 7:30PM ET | Lehigh @ Holy Cross | −30.88 | +1.40 | −12.90 | −14.34 | −14.18 | −24.50 | Lehigh −156 / −163 | +10.32 | Holy Cross +24.5 |
| Fri 8/28 10:00PM ET | Marist @ New Haven | +5.70 | +11.85 | +2.10 | −2.46 | +4.30 | −3.50 | Marist −257 / −355 | +7.80 | New Haven +3.5 |
| Sat 8/29 11:00PM ET | North Carolina Centr @ Texas Southern | −5.80 | −7.19 | −11.30 | −3.54 | −6.96 | −13.50 | North Carolina Central −300 / −355 | +6.54 | Texas Southern +13.5 |
| Sat 8/29 7:00PM ET | UC-Davis @ Portland St | −29.87 | −12.91 | −24.40 | −22.33 | −22.38 | −28.50 | UC Davis −335 / −376 | +6.12 | Portland St +28.5 |
| Sat 8/29 9:30PM ET | Campbell @ East Tennessee St | +16.27 | +9.82 | +19.20 | +15.80 | +15.27 | +9.50 | East Tennessee St. −317 / −400 | +5.77 | no play |
| Thu 8/27 10:00PM ET | Stony Brook @ Delaware St | +1.61 | −5.56 | −0.10 | −3.11 | −1.79 | −7.50 | Stony Brook −285 / −300 | +5.71 | no play |
| Sat 8/29 10:00PM ET | Bucknell @ Richmond | +12.38 | +13.94 | +21.30 | +13.11 | +15.18 | +9.50 | Richmond −400 / −317 | +5.68 | no play |
| Thu 8/27 10:00PM ET | Mercyhurst @ Youngstown St | +25.65 | +21.83 | +27.90 | +25.79 | +25.29 | +30.50 | Youngstown St. −257 / −355 | −5.21 | no play |
| Sat 8/29 11:00PM ET | Eastern Kentucky @ Western Carolina | −3.53 | +2.65 | +4.30 | +2.35 | +1.44 | +6.50 | Western Carolina −300 / −300 | −5.06 | no play |
| Sat 8/29 10:00PM ET | Morgan St @ North Carolina A&T | −1.75 | −2.18 | −5.30 | −8.76 | −4.50 | −9.50 | Morgan St. −335 / −400 | +5.00 | no play |
| Thu 8/27 11:00PM ET | Chattanooga @ West Georgia | +12.92 | +1.22 | +7.50 | +15.97 | +9.40 | +4.50 | West Georgia −300 / −400 | +4.90 | no play |
| Thu 8/27 11:00PM ET | Mississippi Valley S @ Nicholls St | +24.44 | +19.09 | +20.40 | +27.01 | +22.73 | +27.50 | Nicholls St. −488 / −257 | −4.77 | no play |
| Sat 8/29 1:00AM ET | Weber St @ Northern Colorado | +0.95 | −6.89 | −3.80 | +0.90 | −2.21 | +2.50 | Northern Colorado −355 / −257 | −4.71 | no play |
| Thu 8/27 11:00PM ET | Lafayette @ Georgetown DC | −14.70 | −7.50 | −14.10 | −12.09 | −12.10 | −7.50 | Lafayette −186 / −194 | −4.60 | no play |
| Sat 8/29 10:00PM ET | Bryant @ Stonehill | +5.20 | −3.05 | −0.70 | −1.06 | +0.10 | −4.50 | Bryant −104 / −100 | +4.60 | no play |
| Sun 8/30 12:30AM ET | Jackson St @ Tennessee St | −21.69 | −7.24 | −19.00 | −16.18 | −16.03 | −20.50 | Jackson St. −335 / −400 | +4.47 | no play |
| Sun 8/30 2:00AM ET | Montana St @ Utah Tech | −47.99 | −26.06 | −31.90 | −31.39 | −34.34 | −30.50 | Montana St. −335 / −317 | −3.84 | no play |
| Fri 8/28 12:00AM ET | LIU @ North Dakota | +26.08 | +26.49 | +22.30 | +33.16 | +27.01 | +30.50 | North Dakota −170 / −163 | −3.49 | no play |
| Fri 8/28 10:00PM ET | William & Mary @ Villanova | +20.65 | +10.07 | +13.10 | +15.06 | +14.72 | +11.50 | Villanova −270 / −186 | +3.22 | no play |
| Thu 8/27 11:30PM ET | Central Arkansas @ Tennessee-Martin | +6.97 | +3.92 | +8.60 | +1.68 | +5.29 | +2.50 | Tennessee-Martin −285 / −400 | +2.79 | no play |
| Sat 8/29 9:00PM ET | Eastern Washington @ Northern Arizona | +4.50 | +5.09 | +9.80 | +9.77 | +7.29 | +4.50 | Northern Arizona −285 / −285 | +2.79 | no play |
| Sun 8/30 1:00AM ET | Prairie View A&M @ Tarleton St | +15.76 | +20.33 | +13.50 | +25.63 | +18.80 | +21.50 | Tarleton St. −100 / −104 | −2.70 | no play |
| Sat 8/29 11:30PM ET | Howard @ Alabama A&M | — | +0.00 | +0.00 | −2.78 | −0.93 | −3.50 | Howard −317 / −400 | +2.57 | no play |
| Sat 8/29 4:00PM ET | Robert Morris @ Wagner | +13.03 | −0.42 | +5.70 | +4.63 | +5.74 | +3.50 | Wagner −376 / −270 | +2.24 | no play |
| Sat 8/29 11:00PM ET | Samford @ North Alabama | — | +3.11 | +9.70 | +9.82 | +7.54 | +9.50 | North Alabama −335 / −400 | −1.96 | no play |
| Sat 8/29 2:00AM ET | Idaho @ Cal Poly SLO | +5.68 | −8.80 | −6.40 | +2.70 | −1.71 | −3.50 | Idaho −317 / −376 | +1.79 | no play |
| Sat 8/29 11:00PM ET | Stetson @ South Dakota St | +55.84 | +48.14 | +45.10 | +51.79 | +50.22 | +48.50 | South Dakota St. −300 / −456 | +1.72 | no play |
| Fri 8/28 10:00PM ET | Colgate @ Fordham | −15.25 | +0.28 | −6.30 | −9.97 | −7.81 | −9.50 | Colgate −426 / −317 | +1.69 | no play |
| Fri 8/28 10:00PM ET | Rhode Island @ Merrimack | −31.72 | −8.54 | −24.70 | −14.53 | −19.87 | −21.50 | Rhode Island −335 / −400 | +1.63 | no play |
| Sat 8/29 10:00PM ET | The Citadel @ Wofford | +10.30 | +6.30 | +7.80 | +9.79 | +8.55 | +7.50 | Wofford −335 / −400 | +1.05 | no play |
| Sat 8/29 11:00PM ET | Abilene Christian @ Lamar | −2.64 | −7.94 | −2.00 | −5.49 | −4.52 | −5.50 | Abilene Christian −426 / −317 | +0.98 | no play |
| Thu 8/27 11:00PM ET | Houston Christian @ SE Louisiana | +32.08 | +18.73 | +33.10 | +29.17 | +28.27 | +27.50 | Southeastern Louisiana −245 / −376 | +0.77 | no play |
| Thu 8/27 10:00PM ET | Maine @ Towson | +1.02 | +6.14 | +4.30 | +4.89 | +4.09 | +3.50 | Towson −113 / −108 | +0.59 | no play |
| Thu 8/27 11:00PM ET | Eastern Illinois @ Murray St | +10.06 | +1.43 | +0.50 | +3.70 | +3.92 | +4.50 | Murray St. −257 / −355 | −0.58 | no play |
| Sat 8/29 10:00PM ET | VMI @ Idaho St | +43.35 | +18.99 | +34.70 | +39.17 | +34.05 | +33.50 | Idaho St. −400 / −317 | +0.55 | no play |
| Thu 8/27 11:00PM ET | Gardner-Webb @ Austin Peay | +13.14 | +10.67 | +16.50 | +15.64 | +13.99 | +13.50 | Austin Peay −335 / −257 | +0.49 | no play |
| Sun 8/30 1:00AM ET | Southern Utah @ Montana | +23.34 | +12.49 | +16.90 | +11.78 | +16.13 | +16.50 | Montana −156 / −170 | −0.37 | no play |
| Sat 8/29 11:00PM ET | East Texas A&M @ Mercer | +20.78 | +19.16 | +27.30 | +17.64 | +21.22 | +21.50 | Mercer −614 / −270 | −0.28 | no play |
| Sat 8/29 11:00PM ET | Stephen F. Austin @ McNeese St | −13.64 | −10.27 | −16.10 | −17.46 | −14.37 | −14.50 | Stephen F. Austin −335 / −400 | +0.13 | no play |
Coverage note:
TR joined FCS as a 4th vote (2026-08-27, per your call) alongside Keeper + Sagarin + SP+, and 38 of 40 FCS games above are the full 4/4. The 2 still at 3/4 — Samford @ North Alabama, Howard @ Alabama A&M — are genuinely missing Keeper: neither side was marked with the @ home indicator in that week's real Keeper data, so Keeper skipped them rather than guess. Not a bug here, a gap in the source.
|
| Kickoff | Game | Keeper | SP+ | TR | Avg | Market | Odds | Diff | Play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/29 11:00PM ET | Eastern Kentucky @ Western Carolina | 63.00 | 59.50 | 74.30 | 65.60 | 49.50 | Over −108 / Under −113 | +16.10 | Over 49.5 |
| Fri 8/28 12:00AM ET | LIU @ North Dakota | 42.90 | 41.80 | 37.90 | 40.87 | 51.50 | Over −150 / Under −144 | −10.63 | Under 51.5 |
| Sun 8/30 1:00AM ET | Southern Utah @ Montana | 65.90 | 65.20 | 75.20 | 68.77 | 58.50 | Over −178 / Under −186 | +10.27 | Over 58.5 |
| Sat 8/29 10:00PM ET | Morgan St @ North Carolina A&T | 56.60 | 53.60 | 63.90 | 58.03 | 49.50 | Over −245 / Under −223 | +8.53 | Over 49.5 |
| Thu 8/27 11:00PM ET | Gardner-Webb @ Austin Peay | 61.20 | 57.00 | 77.60 | 65.27 | 57.50 | Over −100 / Under −113 | +7.77 | Over 57.5 |
| Fri 8/28 10:00PM ET | Rhode Island @ Merrimack | 47.40 | 48.30 | 41.80 | 45.83 | 53.50 | Over −104 / Under −117 | −7.67 | Under 53.5 |
| Sun 8/30 2:00AM ET | Montana St @ Utah Tech | 51.50 | 52.60 | 45.10 | 49.73 | 56.50 | Over −122 / Under −108 | −6.77 | Under 56.5 |
| Sat 8/29 9:00PM ET | Eastern Washington @ Northern Arizona | 61.60 | 60.40 | 63.90 | 61.97 | 55.50 | Over −108 / Under −113 | +6.47 | Over 55.5 |
| Fri 8/28 10:00PM ET | Colgate @ Fordham | 54.50 | 51.10 | 64.80 | 56.80 | 50.50 | Over −108 / Under −117 | +6.30 | Over 50.5 |
| Thu 8/27 10:00PM ET | Stony Brook @ Delaware St | 54.80 | 55.70 | 61.60 | 57.37 | 51.50 | Over −100 / Under −122 | +5.87 | no play |
| Thu 8/27 11:00PM ET | Houston Christian @ SE Louisiana | 46.60 | 43.10 | 44.40 | 44.70 | 50.50 | Over −113 / Under −100 | −5.80 | no play |
| Sat 8/29 4:00PM ET | Robert Morris @ Wagner | 38.60 | 31.10 | 32.00 | 33.90 | 39.50 | Over −108 / Under −113 | −5.60 | no play |
| Fri 8/28 10:00PM ET | Marist @ New Haven | 46.90 | 48.60 | 54.50 | 50.00 | 44.50 | Over −108 / Under −117 | +5.50 | no play |
| Sat 8/29 11:00PM ET | North Carolina Centr @ Texas Southern | 54.30 | 52.30 | 64.40 | 57.00 | 51.50 | Over −108 / Under −117 | +5.50 | no play |
| Sat 8/29 7:30PM ET | Lehigh @ Holy Cross | 47.30 | 46.70 | 32.40 | 42.13 | 47.50 | Over −108 / Under −122 | −5.37 | no play |
| Sun 8/30 12:30AM ET | Jackson St @ Tennessee St | 44.40 | 43.70 | 47.50 | 45.20 | 50.50 | Over −426 / Under −456 | −5.30 | no play |
| Thu 8/27 10:00PM ET | Maine @ Towson | 50.90 | 50.30 | 44.30 | 48.50 | 43.50 | Over −113 / Under −108 | +5.00 | no play |
| Sat 8/29 10:00PM ET | The Citadel @ Wofford | 45.40 | 45.20 | 27.90 | 39.50 | 44.50 | Over −113 / Under −113 | −5.00 | no play |
| Sat 8/29 9:30PM ET | Campbell @ East Tennessee St | 60.30 | 60.70 | 59.10 | 60.03 | 55.50 | Over −245 / Under −223 | +4.53 | no play |
| Thu 8/27 10:00PM ET | Mercyhurst @ Youngstown St | 55.60 | 53.30 | 64.00 | 57.63 | 53.50 | Over −104 / Under −108 | +4.13 | no play |
| Thu 8/27 11:00PM ET | Mississippi Valley S @ Nicholls St | 50.40 | 48.80 | 51.30 | 50.17 | 53.50 | Over −186 / Under −245 | −3.33 | no play |
| Sat 8/29 10:00PM ET | VMI @ Idaho St | 58.20 | 57.20 | 56.70 | 57.37 | 60.50 | Over −233 / Under −203 | −3.13 | no play |
| Sat 8/29 11:00PM ET | East Texas A&M @ Mercer | 61.90 | 60.80 | 67.70 | 63.47 | 60.50 | Over −104 / Under −113 | +2.97 | no play |
| Sun 8/30 1:00AM ET | Prairie View A&M @ Tarleton St | 57.20 | 53.50 | 60.60 | 57.10 | 54.50 | Over −108 / Under −117 | +2.60 | no play |
| Sat 8/29 11:00PM ET | Stetson @ South Dakota St | 52.90 | 53.80 | 55.40 | 54.03 | 56.50 | Over −223 / Under −223 | −2.47 | no play |
| Sat 8/29 1:00AM ET | Weber St @ Northern Colorado | 52.80 | 55.70 | 43.30 | 50.60 | 48.50 | Over −108 / Under −108 | +2.10 | no play |
| Thu 8/27 11:30PM ET | Central Arkansas @ Tennessee-Martin | 50.50 | 51.00 | 53.30 | 51.60 | 53.50 | Over −213 / Under −223 | −1.90 | no play |
| Thu 8/27 11:00PM ET | Lafayette @ Georgetown DC | 48.40 | 54.70 | 56.50 | 53.20 | 51.50 | Over −108 / Under −117 | +1.70 | no play |
| Sat 8/29 7:00PM ET | UC-Davis @ Portland St | 68.20 | 62.80 | 59.90 | 63.63 | 62.50 | Over −233 / Under −233 | +1.13 | no play |
| Sat 8/29 11:00PM ET | Abilene Christian @ Lamar | 51.10 | 49.40 | 44.70 | 48.40 | 49.50 | Over −108 / Under −108 | −1.10 | no play |
| Sat 8/29 2:00AM ET | Idaho @ Cal Poly SLO | 57.50 | 58.10 | 54.00 | 56.53 | 55.50 | Over −127 / Under −122 | +1.03 | no play |
| Sat 8/29 11:00PM ET | Stephen F. Austin @ McNeese St | 49.80 | 48.50 | 47.90 | 48.73 | 49.50 | Over −233 / Under −233 | −0.77 | no play |
| Fri 8/28 10:00PM ET | William & Mary @ Villanova | 46.90 | 52.00 | 51.80 | 50.23 | 49.50 | Over −108 / Under −113 | +0.73 | no play |
| Thu 8/27 11:00PM ET | Charleston Southern @ Lindenwood | 44.00 | 45.60 | 44.80 | 44.80 | 45.50 | Over −117 / Under −117 | −0.70 | no play |
| Sat 8/29 11:30PM ET | Howard @ Alabama A&M | — | 48.70 | 40.90 | 44.80 | 45.50 | Over −108 / Under −113 | −0.70 | no play |
| Sat 8/29 10:00PM ET | Bucknell @ Richmond | 47.30 | 51.90 | 54.20 | 51.13 | 50.50 | Over −233 / Under −233 | +0.63 | no play |
| Thu 8/27 11:00PM ET | Eastern Illinois @ Murray St | 52.10 | 50.40 | 53.60 | 52.03 | 51.50 | Over −108 / Under −113 | +0.53 | no play |
| Sat 8/29 10:00PM ET | Bryant @ Stonehill | 47.80 | 41.70 | 42.50 | 44.00 | 43.50 | Over −113 / Under −117 | +0.50 | no play |
| Thu 8/27 11:00PM ET | Chattanooga @ West Georgia | 51.70 | 53.70 | 50.10 | 51.83 | 51.50 | Over −104 / Under −122 | +0.33 | no play |
| Sat 8/29 11:00PM ET | Samford @ North Alabama | — | 58.10 | 55.10 | 56.60 | 56.50 | Over −108 / Under −117 | +0.10 | no play |
Your best bucket is fully wired now:
Sagarin never publishes a total (spread-only source), but Keeper + SP+ + TR together cover 38 of 40 games above at the full 3/3. The same 2 games missing Keeper (Samford @ North Alabama, Howard @ Alabama A&M) are also missing here, for the same reason — no @ home marker in that week's real Keeper data.
|